Investigating the link between weather and chronic pain

For centuries, people with chronic pain have linked their symptoms to the weather, but scientific proof has been limited. Now, researchers at The University of Manchester have tackled this question with Cloudy with a Chance of Pain, the world’s first smartphone-based study on weather and pain.

The belief that weather influences chronic pain has persisted for centuries, particularly among individuals living with conditions such as arthritis and fibromyalgia. Despite its prevalence, scientific evidence supporting this association has historically been inconclusive.

Researchers at The University of Manchester have now provided robust evidence through Cloudy with a Chance of Pain, the world’s first smartphone-based study designed to investigate the relationship between weather conditions and chronic pain. By combining digital technology with large-scale public participation, the study offers valuable insights into an enduring clinical question.

Using technology to unlock centuries-old questions

Around 80% of people with chronic pain believe the weather affects their symptoms, yet scientific studies have previously failed to offer consistent answers. Most have been small, short, or unable to reflect real-world weather exposure.

Led by researchers at The University of Manchester’s Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Cloudy with a Chance of Pain took a radically different approach: using smartphones and GPS technology to track the daily experiences of over 13,000 participants across the UK over a 15-month period.

Participants logged their pain and other symptoms daily in an app, which automatically linked their entries to real-time, location-specific weather data.

Mapping pain to weather at scale

The study generated millions of data points, far more than any previous research. By comparing days with increased pain to symptom-free days for the same individual within and across seasons, the researchers were able to isolate the effects of weather.

They found that higher humidity, lower atmospheric pressure and stronger winds were all linked to increased pain, confirming the beliefs of many participants and offering the first large-scale evidence of a direct association.

Importantly, the results also showed that this relationship could not be explained away by other factors such as mood or physical activity, strengthening the case that weather plays an independent role in influencing chronic pain.

Putting knowledge into people’s hands

This research doesn’t just answer an academic question – it also has real-world impact. By understanding which weather conditions are most likely to worsen symptoms, people living with long-term pain can make more informed choices about how they manage their day.

This could mean adjusting plans on high-pain weather days, conserving energy, or even seeking out interventions to improve indoor environmental conditions like humidity.

Longer term, these findings may also help researchers uncover the biological mechanisms that link environmental factors to pain, offering potential new pathways for developing treatments.

“This study has shown that smartphones enable wide public participation in meaningful and relevant health research,” says Will Dixon, Professor of Digital Epidemiology at Manchester.

“Our smartphone and wearable research is now expanding to support self-management and clinical consultations for people living with long-term health conditions.”

A model for future citizen science

Cloudy with a Chance of Pain also sets a benchmark for how technology can support large-scale, real-world research. By putting data collection in the hands of participants and using tools that fit naturally into daily life, it enabled a study that was more inclusive, expansive, and authentic than traditional clinical trials.

This approach continues to inspire new digital health studies, where patients aren’t just subjects, but active contributors and co-investigators in the journey to better understanding of health and care.